Horse Racing Handicapping Methods Using Pace and Speed or Class in Combination

If you're looking for a handicapping method that will evaluate runners and put you on horses that will make a profit over the long run, you'll have to determine which factors to use. The problem is that all horse races are not the same. We know that pace is different depending on the surface that the race is going on, but what combination of pace and speed or class do we use to raise one horse higher?

Start with the notion of a hierarchy as a way of determining the fair value that a horse should return. In order to arrive at that value you have to know to what degree a horse outshines the other horses. It's confusing at times because while one horse may match the pace scenario better than another it may lack class.

When you're making your comparisons you're asking yourself, "Which is more important, class or speed or pace?" That's the problem. The horse that stands head and shoulders above the others in all categories will go to post at ridiculously low odds and won't be much of a bet. It's hard to get enthusiastic about a runner at 1-5 odds. We all look for the horse that appears to be undervalued by the crowd, but let's face it, they do a pretty good job of pricing horses.

I've found that on the speed favoring dirt tracks in North America speed and pace are almost synonymous. The horse that can establish and early lead will often dominate and hold off any late threats. We've seen it many times, the horse that the public feels is the cheap speed in the race goes to the front and never looks back. Another likely scenario is a cheap speedster that manages to rate behind two classier opponents and passes them in the stretch once they've exhausted each other.

Therefore, before I rate a class horse I want to know that it actually has won at the distance and track. It may be classy, but if it isn't built to win at the distance a speed horse with pace may manage to win even though it looks inferior on paper because it hasn't run against the same caliber horses that the class horse has faced. Don't make the mistake of over rating a horse because it won a lot more money. That is impressive, but you must answer the question of where and when it won that money.

If the races it won were on a different surface or if it is a router and today's race is a sprint, you may find better value on a more mundane runner that matches the track model.